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FiveThirtyEight » Politics

When is a campaign not a campaign? When it’s Jeb Bush’s!

The chair of the Federal Elections Commission has crying “uncle” in the face of a deadlocked commission. Which is really too bad, because 2016 is shaping up to be one long exercise in candidates skirting the edge of campaign finance laws, such as they are. As the 2016 campaig [...]

As Patriot Act Expiration Looms, Critics Hope for Sunset on Mass Surveillance

With a deadline for the USA Patriot Act fast approaching, Congress has little time to decide how to proceed—but the call to ‘sunset’ the law is growing. (Photo: Dan Cook/flickr/cc/with overlay) ‘Together we will end the Patriot Act, and the sun can rise on a new day fi [...]

Obamacare got 12 million insured, now Congress has to fix the system for all the underinsured

Healthcare reform is not done. Not by a long shot. While Obamacare has gone a very long way toward getting people insured, and in creating some good reforms and regulations on private insurance, private health insurance can still be pretty sucky. And according to a new report from the Co [...]

Pauline Kael’s First Film Review for The New Republic

The most revolutionary thing about Pauline Kael was her voice: wild, undisciplined, impassioned, and, above all, personal. And for that reason, she didn’t last long at the comparatively rigorous New Republic. “[The readers] thought of me as an impertinent snip,” she later said. Sh Go to S [...]

West Wing Week: 05/22/2015 or, “@POTUS”

This week was National Police Week, and the President honored fallen officers at the National Peace Officers Memorial Service; celebrated the reform efforts of police officers in Camden, New Jersey; signed the National Blue Alert Act to help protect police officers; and congratulated the  [...]

Holy Shit. This Is How the Duggars’ Homeschooling Curriculum Allegedly Dealt With Sexual Abuse.

All I can tell you about this tweet is that the Duggars are/were fans of Bill Gothard and that this sexual abuse “lesson” does appear to have been a part of his curriculum at one time. The Duggars use Bill Gothard’s Advanced Training Institute for homeschooling. This is [...]

Shameful Texas Court of Criminal Appeals wimps out in Keller day care case

The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals embarrassed itself recently by refusing to find Dan and Fran Keller innocent of charges that they sexually molested children in their Austin day care center in 1992. Fortunately for the Kellers, however, the court finally did overturn their wrongful con [...]

Paid Leave This Week: Breastfeeding Models, Pregnant Marines, and the Worst States for Working Moms

The best and worst states for working mothers: Thinking of having kids? You might not want to move to Indiana, Utah, or Montana, according to a new report by the Institute of Women’s Policy Re Go to Source : Paid Leave This Week: Breastfeeding Models, Pregnant Marines, and the Worst State [...]

Cartoon: America’s rapidly rising faiths

Click to enlarge. A Pew survey came out last week showing that the ranks of Christians are declining in America, while the unaffiliated and other faiths are growing. Of course Christianity will remain a super-majority in the U.S. for decades to come, but it offers some hope that in the d [...]

Young Clintonistas Fired Up, Ready To Go

No matter how much we read, think and talk to other people, it’s impossible entirely to remove the impact of personal (which mean generational) experience in perceiving events as they happen and people as we encounter them. That’s why I found Suzy Khimm’s TNR piece on a  [...]

As California endures its fourth year of grueling drought, officials are getting more serious about mandatory water cuts. Gov. Jerry B [...]

Fast Track Really Comes Down to the Filibuster

This thought has been nagging the back of my mind for a while, so I’m glad Greg Sargent has clarified it for me. In a detailed discussion of what will happen to TPP (and future trade agreements) if Trade Promotion Authority (a.k.a. “fast-track”) is passed, Greg reaches  [...]

Clinton says she’s not running for a ‘third term’ of her husband or Obama

EXETER, N.H. — Hillary Rodham Clinton on Friday sought to distance herself somewhat from both her husband, a previous president, and Barack Obama, the current White House occupant who defeated her in 2008. “I’m not running for my husband’s third term and I’m  [...]

Pew poll: 75 percent of Republicans want their party to challenge Obama ‘more often’

Not satisfied. According to a new Pew poll, the Republican base isn’t too happy with their leaders. Today, just 41% of Republicans approve of the job their party’s leaders in Congress are doing. […] And just 37% of Republicans say their party’s leaders are keeping their camp [...]

The Republican National Committee thinks it has the smoking gun that proves Hillary Clinton used “multiple secret email addresses” as secre [...]

Another Plan B for ACA If SCOTUS Strikes

Having considered some pretty bad scenarios yesterday for what would happen politically if the Supreme Court strikes down Obamacare subsidies for states that haven’t set up their own insurance purchasing exchanges, there was an interesting straw in the wind about possible developmen [...]

Hillary Clinton: ‘No role whatsoever for American soldiers on the ground’ in Iraq

  HAMPTON, N.H. — Hillary Rodham Clinton said Friday that she sees “no role whatsoever for American soldiers on the ground to go back” to Iraq as the Islamic State terrorist group makes gains. The remarks by Clinton — who has disavowed her own 2003 vote for th [...]

These Are the Jobs Robots Will Take From Humans, According To Researchers With Jobs…For Now

The coming robot invasion is suddenly a hot topic again. This week, Fresh Air interviewed Martin Ford, whose book Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future was just reviewed in the New York Times by Barbara Ehrenreich. The Harvard Business Review published a long a [...]

Volunteers fill buckets with oil near Refugio State Beach. Michael A. Mariant/AP On Tuesday, an oil pipeline burst near Refugio State Bea [...]