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FiveThirtyEight » Politics

Open thread for night owls: ‘Contrarian’ climate studies are the product of identifiable errors

A group of researchers set themselves to the task of determining why, although nearly all scientific studies confirm that climate change is indeed happening and that human activity is the prime driver of that change, there continue to be studies purporting to demonstrate the opposite. P [...]

Apple has never allowed ad-blocking software on the iPhone or iPad. This is one among many reasons that I ditched both. Not because I hate  [...]

Straight outta physics

It’s a good thing nukes are really hard to make. If they could be fabricated as easily as mustard gas or gunpowder, we would be in a world of trouble, literally and figuratively. And there’s another reason it’s such a good thing. The process of 1) refining enough materia [...]

The Rehabilitationists

In November 2013, a who’s who of America’s conservative legal establishment descended on the Mayflower Hotel in Washington, D.C., for an annual meeting of the Federalist Society, the most influential conservative legal organization in the country. Current presidential candidates Scott Wal [...]

Unicornomics

Unveiling the Congressional Budget Office’s latest long-term forecast this week, new CBO Director Keith Hall made an unremarkable statement. “The evidence,” Hall explained, “is that tax cuts do not pay for themselves.” For the overwhelming majority of econom [...]

The End of Silly Season is in Sight

I got a bit of a chuckle this week when Kevin Drum wrote: TGIAS: Finally, August is Almost Over. Those who have been suggesting that Trump-mania is at least in part fueled by the fact that there hasn’t been much else to talk about are not completely wrong. But silly season is about  [...]

Immigration is all the GOP has and Donald Trump is the canary in the coal mine

Does the Republican establishment really want Donald Trump to get out of the presidential race? Do party leaders want him to tone it down? On the contrary, there seems to be some unanticipated genius in Trump’s method. He is the canary in the GOP coal mine, warning us of the party& [...]

Confusing Thoughtfulness With Cowardice

Recently Ryan Cooper wrote this: Of all the powers of the presidency, the pardon is perhaps the most absolute. The president can pardon anyone for any or no reason, with an exception in the case of impeachment (so he may not pardon himself). It provides a kind of emergency valve for the c [...]

‘My body, my choice’ is not true for women in poverty, in federal employment, or in the military

“My body, my choice” is a privilege for those whose insurance provides coverage for abortions (assuming that their employers don’t object), or who can afford to pay the expense out of pocket. That privilege doesn’t extend to women who receive Medicare or Children& [...]

One of the ways our new breed of “data journalists” tries to sell their wares is via headlines that say, “This Chart Expl [...]

Jorge Ramos: Donald Trump is ‘dangerous’

Univision news anchor Jorge Ramos called Donald Trump, a top Republican presidential candidate, “dangerous” in an interview Sunday on ABC News’s “This Week.” When questioned by guest host Martha Raddatz about his public tangle with Trump at a news confere [...]

A newly displaced centrist Republican’s guide to third parties

‘Merica! Watching the GOP’s three-ring nomination circus has been entertaining and terrifying at the same time. We have witnessed what were once considered fringe positions be embraced by many mainstream Republicans. Because of this, one has to assume that there are good man [...]

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich: Donald Trump could be GOP nominee

In a roundtable discussion with political reporters and analysts on ABC’s “This Week,” former House speaker Newt Gingrich said what others may be thinking. Gingrich told guest host Martha Raddatz that Donald Trump, a billionaire businessman, real estate mogul and nov [...]

Scott Walker: What about a wall on the Canadian border, too?

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) says the United States needs to secure all its borders — and that includes reviewing security on the far-less-controversial northern border it shares with Canada, the longest border in the world at 5,525 miles. Walker has long said that securing U.S. bo [...]

The 2016 presidential polling is deeply weird (but does that matter?)

Jeb Bush: Trailing nationally, but leading in … Michigan?! Perhaps predictably, most of the attention being lavished upon the nascent 2016 presidential election is centering on the increasingly entertaining primary contests. This is particularly true as it relates to polling. Nati [...]

Reclaiming Morality

I know you are busy. But I’d like to ask you to take a few minutes and watch Rev. William Barber talk about morality. I have often found it frustrating that the word “morals” has been hijacked in our culture to spur only thoughts about sexual morality. Obviously Rev. Ba [...]

So what does the commentariat think on the hair front? Here’s a smattering of comments from folks who like my new, shorter hair: DM: [...]

Tea party and Trump supporters can’t accept people like Jorge Ramos and Barack Obama as Americans

American. Let’s start with the obvious. Given that the candidate himself has characterized Mexican immigrants as criminals and rapists, we can’t be surprised that one of his partisans told Jorge Ramos, the most influential Latino journalist there is, to “get out of my  [...]

The Internet Is Making Us Sicker

The placebo effect, as we all know, is the mechanism by which we sometimes feel better even when we’re given meds that later turn out to be sugar pills. The mere expectation that we will get better somehow helps us actually get better. The most eye-popping example of the placebo eff [...]

The Roots of Political Correctness

It seems that one of the issues that unites almost all the Republican candidates who are running for president is disgust with the idea of political correctness. It has especially become the rallying cry for Trump and Carson. When I think of the term, I am immediately reminded of how Lee  [...]