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FiveThirtyEight » Politics

Cracking the Cartel

For 80 years, the Heisman Trophy has been awarded annually to the college football player “whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity.” Athletes from the University of Southern California, my alma mater, have won six: the tailbacks Mike Garrett, Charles White [...]

Day’s End and Night Watch

Had to knock out a TPMCafe column during the day, and chose to write about Dr. Ben Carson. It really wasn’t easy, even though I feel like I’ve had his number for a good long while. I suspect I’d understand him infallibly if I spent a few weeks getting schooled by Glenn [...]

Too many inmates, too few correctional officers: A lethal recipe in federal prisons

People who work in cafeterias might expect complaints about the chili, but not conflicts with knife-toting convicts. Yet, if you sling grits and chicken in a U.S. Bureau of Prisons (BOP) dining hall, dealing with killers, kidnappers, and thieves is part of the job description —  [...]

A reader tells me this story seems right up my alley: Google, a leader in efforts to create driverless cars, has run into an odd safety co [...]

CNN just solved its Carly Fiorina problem. It had no choice.

CNN’s decision to add a likely 11th podium spot for its main-stage Republican presidential debate on Sept. 16 is clearly aimed at one person: Carly Fiorina. The move is designed to quiet criticism that the former HP executive might be excluded despite her clear and consistent ri [...]

Never, Ever, Ever Move Left

Remember that crazy Donald Trump instagram ad I wrote about before lunch? Jonathan Chait informs us Bush has responded, and his response tells us a lot more about the dynamics of today’s Republican Party than the initial offense: There are a few ways Bush could respond to this. He  [...]

How Carly Fiorina earned a spot on the big stage at the GOP debate

The organizers of the next Republican presidential debate have announced changes to debate criteria that mean former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina will join the rest of the top-tier candidates on the main stage at the Reagan Library on Sept. 16. “CNN reevaluated its criteria [...]

Carly Fiorina gets a spot on the big stage at the GOP debate

The organizers of the next Republican presidential debate have announced that former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina will join the rest of the top-tier candidates on the main stage at the Reagan Library on Sept. 16. The CNN move will likely be greeted as a positive development, and  [...]

Walker’s Economic Spin

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican candidate for president, strained the facts when he compared his state’s economic performance with that of the United States: Walker said his state is “doing better than America in terms of the unemployment number going down.” T [...]

Marco Rubio Is Winning When It Comes To Tech Funding Thanks To One Multibillionaire

The presidential primaries are six months away and tech companies aren’t wasting any time putting money up for the candidates they want to go the distance. Presidential hopefuls former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), and former Republican Florida govern [...]

Cruz leads a GOP backlash to ‘Black Lives Matter’ rhetoric

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) said in interviews this week that law enforcement is under assault, due in part to enmity toward police from the Obama administration. Cruz’s comments came after he was asked about the murder of Texas Sheriff’s Deputy Darren Goforth, who was shot 15  [...]

The Ultimate Jerking Knee of Anti-Obamaism

Sure, you’d expect Ohioans to put up a bit of a fuss at the renaming of an Alaska mountain so as to remove the name of an Ohio president, William McKinley. But you wouldn’t expect it to be a serious pushback; Ohio has had a lot of presidents (eight to be exact) with a lot of s [...]

In attacking Obama on Iraq, Trump has another of those oh-so-convenient memory lapses of his

What does what I said then have to do with what I am saying now? David Corn at Mother Jones does an excellent job of vivisecting Donald Trump for blaming President Obama for the bloody mess in Iraq. As we’ve all seen since what seems like forever, Donald Trump has this way of spea [...]

Rand Paul says KY clerk’s gay marriage protest is ‘part of the American way’

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has given a mixed endorsement to a home state county clerk whose refusal to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples has become national news. “I think people who do stand up and are making a stand to say that they believe in so [...]

Dear Ted Cruz, you’re racist.

Dear Ted Cruz, You’re a racist. Don’t believe me? I didn’t think you would. You’re the kind of racist that doesn’t want to be a racist (that’s the worst kind, by the way) and you’ve probably already tuned me out. You and the people around you (le [...]

Judge expands justification for contraception mandate refusal on moral grounds

The post-Hobby Lobby legal world is getting strange, with the one of the latest challenge to Obamacare’s contraception mandate being upheld on moral—not religious—grounds. The case concerned a group called March for Life, which was formed after the Supreme Court recognized a consti [...]

Mike Huckabee: Planned Parenthood = ISIS because both ‘take people’s heads off’

Silence. I have something profound to say. Mike Huckabee thinks the media applied a “double standard” in covering Hillary Clinton’s remarks about the GOP’s “extreme” views on women’s health issues. The Huckster knows who the real terrorists are  [...]

Alaska Supreme Court gives Medicaid expansion the go-ahead

Alaska Gov. Bill Walker gets first win. Medicaid expansion comes to Alaska Tuesday, with the state’s Supreme Court refusing to halt it pending a lawsuit by state lawmakers. Gov. Bill Walker accepted the expansion money unilaterally after the legislature refused to take up legislat [...]

Early 2016 forecasts show Democrats’ huge Electoral College edge

Democrats will hold onto the presidency in 2016 by the narrowest of electoral vote margins, according to the first 2016 prediction of Moody’s Analytics presidential model. “The Democrats should win 270 electoral votes to 268 for the Republican,” writes Moody’s  [...]