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FiveThirtyEight » Politics

Sunday Talk: Through the looking glass

In 1988, Jeb!’s daddy—not to be confused with his sugar daddies—famously declared “Read my lips: no new taxes.” That promise helped the elder Bush win the election, but it also played a role in his defeat four years later. Fast forward to 2015. Jeb!’s nem [...]

Open thread: A Republican’s guide, Thurgood Marshall and physics

What’s coming up on Sunday Kos .. A newly displaced centrist Republican’s guide to third parties, by Mark E Andersen Remembering Thurgood Marshall, and fighting to ensure the future of SCOTUS, by Denise Oliver Velez Straight outta physics, by DarkSyde The 2016 Presidential po [...]

Ha ha. Just kidding. It will be several months before we know how effective the new chemo meds are. However, I can tell you that (a) so far [...]

Elite Republicans have long assumed that Donald Trump’s support would fizzle quickly. But Trump has dominated the polls for more than [...]

Iowa poll finds Trump and Carson surging as Walker collapses

One of politics’ most reliable polls has found first-time candidates Donald Trump and Ben Carson galloping to big leads in the Iowa caucuses. The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll, released Saturday night, also finds one-time front-runner Scott Walker, governor of neig [...]

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer comments on inflation and monetary policy: The Federal Reserve’s No. 2 official said t [...]

This week in the war on workers: Gap to end abusive on-call scheduling

Workers in low-wage industries like retail and food service don’t just need better pay. They need stable schedules—to know ahead of time when they’re going to work, how many hours they’ll be paid for in a week, when they’ll need child care. So it’s big news  [...]

Iowa poll: Sanders surges to within 7 points of Clinton

Hillary Rodham Clinton’s once-commanding lead in Iowa has shrunken to just seven percentage points while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has surged in the state whose caucuses will kick off the race for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, according to a poll released Saturd [...]

Our Democracy is Only Rigged if We Let it Be

Cass Sunstein has written an important rejoinder to the idea that our democracy is rigged. Here’s the paradox: The U.S. is in a period of extraordinary reform, and many recent changes have been made to help those against whom the system is supposedly rigged. Without mentioning the O [...]

Trump, in Tennessee, downplays police brutality, promises to get rid of gangs

NASHVILLE — Sharpening his pitch to what he calls “the silent majority,” Donald Trump presented himself Saturday as the “law and order” candidate in the 2016 presidential race, pledging to “get rid” of gangs and give more power to police officers. Speaking to the National Federation o [...]

Senate Republicans are working with corporate America to screw over the working poor, again

There’s a ton of crap in the Senate Republicans’ funding bill for financial services, including trying to gut the Dodd-Frank Wall Street, slash IRS funding, and prevent enforcement of net neutrality rules. Here’s another: H&R Block lobbied the Appropriations Committ [...]

How much money does a family need to get by where you live?

We talk a fair amount about what people earn. The federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour, or $15,080 for a year of full-time work. Workers are organizing to demand $15 an hour, or $31,200 a year. The median household income is around $52,000. To be in the top one percent of households, yo [...]

Last month, Donald Trump said he didn’t consider John McCain a war hero because “I like people who weren’t captured.̶ [...]

Speaking to Our Aspirations Rather Than Our Fears

I have to admit that even this political junkie had to take a few days away from the news last week. The hate that is being unleashed by the candidacy of Donald Trump got to me. I found myself despairing for my country and needed some time to regroup. I was reminded of how well Derrick Je [...]

Pew: Americans don’t want mass deportation or an end to birthright citizenship

Pew Research Center dug back in its archives for its surveys of American preferences on some of the most pressing issues on immigration this election season. Guess what? The Donald is on the wrong side of basically every immigration issue. Stay or deport? In a Pew Research Center survey  [...]

GOP Hauling Out Tired Old Weapons to Sink Iran Deal

The Wall Street Journal reports that as the Iran deal looks increasingly impossible for Republicans to defeat, they’re thinking of new ways to undermine it after it goes into effect: As their chances dim, they are preparing to push a rash of new legislation for the fall to increase [...]

Republican leaders still support ‘gun rights’ everywhere but near them

What, you don’t want this guy protecting you? At ThinkProgress, Scott Keyes compiles a list of super-duper pro-gun Republicans that think Americans should be able to carry loaded guns everywhere, all the time but have barred guns from places or events where they themselves might b [...]

Dems say party chair blocked Iran resolution at DNC meeting

MINNEAPOLIS — Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz prevented consideration of a resolution at the party’s summer meeting here that praised President Obama and offered backing for the nuclear agreement with Iran, according to knowledgeable Democrats. The r [...]

View from the left—why gun safety isn’t a lost cause

Gun control may have cemented a place in the 2016 elections this week after two aspiring young journalists who worked at a Roanoke, Virginia, TV station were shot on live television. The graphic killings came just over two months after nine black church worshippers were shot to death in  [...]

Never mind the wall. Christie says foreign visitors should be tracked like FedEx packages.

Borrowing some of the rhetoric of his Republican rivals, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on Saturday said that if he is elected president, the United States would track foreign visitors just like FedEx tracks packages. “At any moment, FedEx can tell you where that package is. It’ [...]