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FiveThirtyEight » Politics

Who do actual law enforcement officers see as the biggest terrorist threats in America? Surprise! It’s not Islamic radicals: Approxi [...]

This Ohio GOP congressman is going to fight the Mt. McKinley name change

“I’m sitting on main street in Dayton, Ohio,” said Rep. Mike Turner. “I can tell you, the residents of this city are furious.” The source of their fury — and of Turner’s — is the news that President Obama will restore the native name of  [...]

Backlash Notes, Cruz Edition

Ever since the virtual strike of cops in New York and Baltimore in conjunction with protests against police shootings of unarmed African-Americans, I’ve been concerned that on the brink of potential bipartisan action on criminal justice reform we’d see a 1960s-1970s style back [...]

What Ted Cruz has in common with Britney Spears

When Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) speaks to crowds, he doesn’t stand still, pacing around stages and ballrooms, gesticulating wildly in an effort to connect with audiences. Sometimes his speeches have the feel of a megachurch sermon, other times a TED Talk. But it turns out pacing has anoth [...]

HRC vs. Jeb!

It’s natural every time a poll comes out showing either Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush losing ground in the presidential contest people tend to lump them into the same category of front-runner-facing-existential-challenge-but-may-survive kind of hedge-betting. And that’s particul [...]

Donald Trump, Campaign Finance Reformer?

Bill Lueders Photo by Mike Licht Perhaps the oddest component of Donald Trump’s thoroughly bizarre quest for the Presidency is his emergence as a national champion of campaign finance reform. Harvard professor Lawrence Lessig has called Trump “the most influent [...]

O’Malley furniture purchases from governor’s mansion draw scrutiny

A decision by former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley to purchase furniture from the governor’s mansion is creating some headaches back home — including criticism from his Republican successor — as he campaigns for the Democratic presidential nomination. When O’Malley and [...]

Obama takes a turn at reality TV in Alaska

He’s rappelled shirtless with heartthrob Zac Efron and had a heart-to-heart in the wilderness with a choked up Deion Sanders. The next step: Bear Grylls landed President Obama on his reality show, where they’ll talk global warming in Alaska. An NBC news release said the pr [...]

The Lochner Constituency

At TNR, Brian Beutler has penned an outstanding analysis of the rise of neo-Lochner-ism in conservative legal circles, and its near-eclipse of more transitional conservative deference to the political branches of government. In last year’s King v. Burwell decision, the Lochnerian vi [...]

How Iowa’s premier pollster sees the 2016 race shaking out

The release of new Iowa poll numbers by the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is one of the few stop-what-you-are-doing-and-see-what-they-say moments left in politics. The woman behind the poll, which gets Iowa right every time, is Ann Selzer.  After the new Register numbers  [...]

How Iowa’s premier pollster sees the 2016 field shaking out

The release of new Iowa poll numbers by the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is one of the few stop-what-you-are-doing-and-see-what-they-say moments left in politics. The woman behind the poll, which gets Iowa right every time, is Ann Selzer.  After the new Register numbers  [...]

Clinton signs on to proposed Wall Street restrictions backed by liberals

Hillary Rodham Clinton is endorsing a proposed change to federal law championed by liberal groups that is intended to slow or stop a revolving door between Wall Street and Washington. “Increasingly, Americans’ trust in government is eroding,” Clinton and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wi [...]

Scott Walker just issued his most direct attack yet against Jeb Bush

Scott Walker issued his most direct attack yet against Republican presidential rival Jeb Bush on Monday, releasing a Web video that criticizes the former Florida governor for not opposing the Iran nuclear deal more forcefully. The video, posted by Walker’s campaign on YouTube, t [...]

Trump gives Jeb! the ‘Willie Horton’ treatment on immigration

If you thought The Donald had gone as low as he could go on his racist crusade against undocumented immigrants, he’s proven you wrong. In a nod to the infamous 1988 Willie Horton ad deployed by Jeb!’s father against his hapless Democratic challenger Michael Dukakis, Trump is  [...]

Group behind Planned Parenthood attacks has close ties to extremists

The group behind the falsified videos attacking Planned Parenthood calls itself a “group of citizen journalists,” but is of course not actually journalists. What the so-called Center for Medical Progress really is is a group of committed anti-abortion activists with close ti [...]

Donald Trump Goes Willie Horton on Jeb Bush

Donald Trump’s latest attack on Jeb Bush may strike a familiar chord for those who remember the 1988 presidential race. On Monday afternoon, Trump released a video on Instagram that assails Bush for a supposedly lenient stance on undocumented immigration. The video ci [...]

Trump thinks the police are not tough or powerful enough

Donald Trump is managing to get even more tone deaf on police brutality. Speaking at the National Federation of Republican Assemblies on Saturday, Trump pledged to make police more powerful and aggressive. According to the Washington Post, Trump “presented himself as the ‘law [...]

Angry viewers wanted FCC to cancel the Duggars’ ’19 Kids and Counting’

Before the Duggar family’s reality show “19 Kids and Counting” was cancelled in mid-August, many irate viewers asked the federal government to intervene. It’s fairly common for people to turn to the Federal Communications Commission when they see things on TV t [...]

The deeply disturbing lie that the death of a Texas officer is connected to Black Lives Matter

This past week in Houston, Texas a white police officer, Darren Goforth, was fatally shot and killed by a black man with a lengthy and violent criminal history. It was a horrendous crime. Thankfully, the alleged perpetrator, Shannon Miles, has already been arrested. Typically, people who [...]

Breaking: Another Massive Explosion Rocks Industrial City in China

Another huge explosion has erupted in China, this time in the eastern city of Dongying, according to the People’s Daily, a Chinese state-run newspaper: Breaking: A blast seen and heard in a chemical industry zone in Lijin, Dongying City of Shandong around 23:25 Mon. pic.twitter.com [...]