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FiveThirtyEight » Politics

One Pollster Has Stopped Polling the Republican Primary. Will Others Follow?

I’ve been wondering for a while who the first pollster would be to stop polling the Republican primary. Today I got my answer: As candidates jostle to make the cut for the first GOP presidential debate this week, the McClatchy-Marist Poll has temporarily suspended polling on primar [...]

Why Not Joe Biden?

I have no doubt that Joe Biden will run for president, because I’m certain he and Beau talked about it on Beau’s death bed. Whatever fundraising or organizational disadvantages he has compared to Hillary will matter little. Just as Bush 41 ran as Reagan’s third term in 1988, Biden will  [...]

Open thread for night owls: ‘A whole other level of incivility’

It was either the beginning of the modern news era or the end of it, depending on your point of view. A new film documents the 1968 televised debates between Gore Vidal and William F. Buckley Jr., as the two giants of American intellectual discourse came together to create something tha [...]

Clinton buying $2 million in ad time in Iowa, N.H. ahead of GOP super PAC attacks and as polls show her support softening

Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton will air her first television ads of the 2016 presidential contest this week, her campaign said Sunday, as the candidate seeks to convince voters that she is a tough crusader with a softer side. The feel-good biographical ads will go on t [...]

Clinton buying $1 million in ad time in Iowa, N.H. ahead of GOP super PAC attacks and as polls show her support softening

Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton will air her first television ads of the 2016 presidential contest this week, her campaign said Sunday, as the candidate seeks to convince voters that she is a tough crusader with a softer side. The feel-good biographical ads will go on t [...]

Jeb Bush on helping super PAC raise $103 million: ‘You might as well front load it if you can’

“If people don’t like it, that’s just tough luck,” he added. Go to Source : Jeb Bush on helping super PAC raise $103 million: ‘You might as well front load it if you can’

It may have been addressed to his son, but ‘Between the World and Me’ speaks to all of us

Over 50 years before I had ever heard the term white privilege, I sat out in the backyard of our middle-class suburban home and finished The Fire Next Time by James Baldwin. I can still see the bright green grass and the blond wicker furniture, and the curling corner of the paperback boo [...]

The Jihadist of Copenhagen

At approximately 3:30 p.m. on February 14, Omar El-Hussein cut down a back street in Østerbro, a quiet neighborhood near the center of Copenhagen. Dressed in a bulky black parka, the 22-year-old strode purposefully toward to the Krudttønden cultural center. As he approached, he withdrew a [...]

Bernie Sanders finds his #BlackLivesMatter message

CLAREMONT, N.H. — It’s a new riff in the hour-long stump speech of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) — a slow burn. It begins with some ruminations about how “people would have thought you were crazy” if you said the United States in 2015 would have a black president. Th [...]

The death of shop class

Scenes like this are happening less often in our high schools This past week I attended my class reunion. On Saturday morning we took a tour of my alma mater, Madison East High School—GO PURGOLDERS! Many things had changed in the school, and some things, like the smell of the boys locke [...]

The Tension Liberals Can’t Avoid

It is gratifying to see Glenn Greenwald – one of President Obama’s harshest critics from the left – write in defense of the Iran nuclear deal against neocons who are trying to sabotage it. As usual with neocons, they are being deceitful about their actual intent. They do [...]

Ever wondered why humanity’s alone in the universe? It’s because we don’t exist

Hello aliens! We are naked, and also kind of lumpy. Author’s Note—This is a piece about the universe, aliens, computers, bastards and why there may not be, but probably are, alien computer bastards. It’s long, long enough that this is only part 1 of 3. And you know how much  [...]

Charles Koch compares work of his political network to civil rights movement

He cited criminal justice reform as an issue that strikes the same chord as previous “freedom movements.” Go to Source : Charles Koch compares work of his political network to civil rights movement

Josh Mitchell of the Wall Street Journal writes today about the spiraling cost of college: The federal government has boosted aid to famil [...]

Hillary Clinton vs. Bernie Sanders is a fight for the soul of the Democratic Party that must happen

There is an epic battle being fought in the Democratic Party. While it is getting coverage, the context of the coverage is all wrong. The battle is not about who best serves Democrats. It is about the soul of the Democratic Party. It is about what it will mean to be a Democrat going forw [...]

Kelley leaves union presidency with list of victories for feds and continuing frustrations

Next week will be Colleen M. Kelley’s last as president of the National Treasury Employees Union. After 16 years at the helm of the second-largest federal labor organization, she’s returning to Pittsburgh to relax with her family. A former IRS revenue agent, Kelley has been in the thi [...]

As I’m sure you all know by now, the first Republican primary debate of the 2016 presidential race will take place this coming Thursd [...]

Trump campaign fires staffer over allegedly racist Facebook posts

Donald Trump’s campaign fired a staffer Sunday for what it said were racially offensive Facebook posts. “Effective immediately, Sam Nunberg, a low-level political adviser, is no longer associated with the Donald Trump For president campaign,” Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski s [...]

The Holocaust, slavery, and the Republicans’ routinely repulsive rhetoric

In the course of American and world history, slavery and the Holocaust are sui generis cataclysms. Any comparisons—especially casual ones—to the Nazi genocide of European Jewry and the bondage and oppression of African Americans necessarily diminish these unique and unparalleled horrors. [...]

I have to admit to taking a certain amount of pleasure in the fact that – as tea partiers attempt to appropriate our “Founding [...]